29/01/2025

The research paper “E Pluribus, Pauciores (Out of Many, Fewer): Diversity and Birth Rates” by David H. Solomon offers an extensive analysis of how racial diversity, particularly through non-White immigration, impacts White birth rates in the United States. This report aims to delve into the implications of these findings.

Solomon’s study utilises data from 1850 to 2021, drawing on U.S. censuses and the American Community Survey to establish a direct link between racial diversity and birth rates. Two key concepts are central to this analysis: racial isolation and immigration shocks. Racial isolation refers to the scenario where an individual is part of a numerically smaller racial group within a local area. For Whites, a one standard deviation increase in this isolation leads to a birth rate decrease of 0.044 children per woman. Conversely, when the racial share of Whites in an area increases by one standard deviation, there’s an increase of 0.064 children per woman. This paints a clear picture: as the White demographic becomes less concentrated due to immigration, their birth rates diminish.

The study further employs immigration shocks as an instrumental variable to explore causality. These shocks signify sudden increases in local diversity due to immigration, directly correlating with a decrease in the White racial share in counties. The research finds significant negative coefficients in these analyses, underscoring that immigration directly influences the racial composition and, consequently, the birth rates of White communities.

Longitudinally, the study observes that the increase in racial diversity since 1970 might explain between 20% and 44% of the decline in U.S. fertility rates, highlighting the profound effect of demographic changes on birth rates, particularly among Whites.

Several mechanisms underpin these demographic shifts. Homophily, or the preference for same-race marriage, plays a significant role. In areas with increased nonwhite immigration, the pool of potential White partners shrinks, leading to fewer or later marriages among Whites, directly affecting their birth rates. Additionally, the research suggests that in more diverse settings, social trust might diminish, impacting community cohesion and the decision to have children.

The implications of this demographic trend are far-reaching. Culturally, it risks eroding traditional White cultural identities, practices, and languages as they become more of a minority in their locales. Economically, this leads to an ageing population, challenging the sustainability of social services, healthcare, and a balanced labour market. Politically, shifts in population demographics can alter representation, potentially diminishing the political voice of White communities. That’s without even exploring into all of the murders, rapes and assaults that non-Whites bring to White communities.

Given these profound findings, remigration emerges not just as an option but as a critical policy response. By fostering a return migration of immigrants and/or their descendants to their countries of origin, the demographic balance will be adjusted, potentially increasing the White racial share in areas where they are becoming minorities. This would, according to the study’s findings, likely lead to an uptick in White birth rates. Remigration could also serve in preserving cultural identities, ensuring that demographic shifts do not lead to a cultural eclipse.

The implications of this study are extensive. Culturally, there’s a risk of diminishing traditional White cultural identities, practices, and languages as these communities become minorities. Economically, this leads to an ageing population, putting strain on healthcare, social services, and the labour market. Politically, the shift in demographic composition could alter representation, possibly reducing the political influence of White communities.

Importantly, under the Geneva Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, if policies promoting diversity are enacted with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, they could be seen as acts of genocide. The convention specifies genocide to include actions like “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part” or “imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group”. If the intent behind promoting diversity is proven to aim at diminishing or eradicating White cultural or demographic presence, this could potentially fall under the legal definition of genocide, given the study’s documentation of significant impacts on birth rates and cultural identity.

The implications of Solomon’s study extend beyond the United States, drawing parallels with the demographic landscape in Europe, where immigration from non-European countries has similarly increased ethnic diversity, particularly in urban centres. This diversity, mirroring the U.S. context, might be leading to lower birth rates among native White populations through mechanisms like racial isolation and homophily, where the reduced availability of same-race partners could delay marriages or reduce family size. The impact on social trust and community cohesion observed in the study could be echoed in European societies, where discussions about cultural identity, integration, and the effects of demographic change are increasingly at the forefront of political and social discourse.

Solomon’s research vividly illustrates how non-White immigration impacts White birth rates through mechanisms like racial isolation and social dynamics. The severity of this demographic change necessitates proactive measures. Remigration, therefore, should be considered not merely as an option but as a necessary strategy to address the demographic imbalance, maintain cultural integrity, ensure economic stability, and safeguard political representation for White communities in the face of profound demographic shifts.

 

Source: E Pluribus, Pauciores (Out of Many, Fewer): Diversity and Birth Rates by David H. Solomon :: SSRN

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